George Orwell famously observed that modern English had become “ugly and inaccurate because our thoughts are foolish, but the slovenliness of our language makes it easier for us to have foolish thoughts.”
The wisdom of his observation is best demonstrated by the pigsty we have made of energy policy. This week our energy regulator, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), issued a report that concluded Australia was facing massive shortages of electricity over the next decade.
Australia running out of energy is like Arabs running out of sand. We have the most abundant reserves of energy per person of any country in the world. But we are running out of the very thing
that is all around us because of foolish thoughts and slovenly language.
AEMO’s report this week is a case in point. Their conclusion is that “there remains an urgent need for additional commitments to occur, including in dispatchable projects such as long duration storage.” Let’s translate that into English. “We are going to have blackouts unless we build power plants that can stay on most of the time, like coal, gas and nuclear.”
It is worth explaining my translation a little.
“Additional commitments” is simple. It just means building more power stations.
“Dispatchable projects” is the technical jargon for power that can be “dispatched” or relied upon almost all the time. Coal, gas and nuclear plants are in this category. Hydro-electricity is also considered “dispatchable”, although its availability can be significantly reduced during times of
drought. This happened to the Snowy scheme in the 2000s drought.
“Such as long duration storage” is a strange addition. AEMO does not say that we must install “long duration storage” but it unusually decides to highlight this option over others. Why?
Almost certainly it is an attempt to hide their shame that in fact we do need more coal, gas or nuclear power. AEMO has been saying for years that we do not need them.
When AEMO mentions “storage” some might think this is an oblique reference to batteries but this is not so. Later in their report AEMO clarifies that “While short duration batteries, for example, may provide some level of firming capacity, the capability to service reliability risks of longer durations is needed to replace retiring dispatchable capacity through longer and broader risk coverage that
addresses these gaps.”
So what is “long duration storage”? Unhelpfully AEMO does not define this vague term. Presumably it can only mean pumped hydro storage which in some cases can provide power over longer periods than batteries. Although they remain weather dependent and cannot last more than a few days without replenishment.
The problem is that pumped hydro projects are not working out that well and there is nowhere near
enough of them to fill the gaps AEMO has identified. The Snowy project is now at least 6 years late
and 10 times the original budget. A large boring machine is stuck in the Snowy Mountains and it is not really clear when power from this project will be delivered.
AEMO says that we need more than 8 gigawatts of reliable capacity within ten years. Even if Snowy were to come online its capacity of just 2 gigawatts would leave a massive gap.
The Queensland Government plans to develop 7 gigawatts of pumped hydro. But even if this comes online by 2035 as planned (highly unlikely), it would still not be soon enough to fill the gaps in time.
We are only left with one possible answer. Why not build coal, gas or nuclear plants now?
They could easily be built within 10 years. We need 4 large plants to fill the gaps.
Admitting we need to use coal, gas and nuclear would make lots of so-called “experts” eat humble pie. But with Australia facing a decade of blackouts and surging electricity prices better to have the electricity to heat up those pies than none at all.
To paraphrase George Orwell again the idea that we can rely on the weather for all our energy needs is such a stupid idea only an intellectual could believe it.
