Every now and again a chicken little character invades our front pages and newspapers screaming that the sky is falling in. Or more accurately warning that if we are not going to die from heatwaves, then we would be swept away from rising sea levels.
Two weeks ago, we were subject to the latest chicken little exercise when the Australian Government released a new report called the National Climate Risk Assessment. The media were well briefed with the headlines warning that there would be a 444 per cent increase in heat deaths in Sydney, 1.5 million Australians would be subject to flooding, there would be a $611 billion drop in property values and that natural disasters would cost Australians $40 billion a year.
The release of these reports always follows a familiar pattern. The headlines cherry pick the scariest aspects of the technical reports which make for good fodder in the age of click bait news. Then when you actually dive in and read the detail you realise that the story is nowhere near as dramatic as made out.
This report was no different. So, the initial headlines warned that there would be a 444 per cent increase in heat deaths. At a Senate inquiry the day after the report’s release, I asked what would happen to cold deaths if the planet warms? The answer I got was that question was “out of scope”.
How could cold deaths be out of scope? This was a report into the effects of global warming. Many more people die of cold than heat even here in Australia.
On further reading, it turned out that the doomsday report had found its 444 per cent figure in a scientific paper which also had estimated the reduction in cold deaths. And the reduction in cold deaths thanks to global warming in Australia would be around double the increase from heat deaths. The government report had just omitted this inconvenient truth from its reporting.
The report had warned that millions of Australians could be subject to coastal flooding from rising sea levels. The summary report, however, failed to provide the detail. Sea levels around Australia are rising at less than 3 millimetres per year. Hardly an impact worthy of tsunami like panic.
To generate more panic the doomsday report claimed that sea levels would rise by an amount three times faster than they have been. These are at the upper ends of the climate literature’s predictions. Even if they were true, there is no need to panic as such small changes can easily be managed.
If there were serious risks to sea level rise, you would expect property values for harbourside mansions to be crashing. The opposite is happening and, ironically, most of those that can afford the oceanfront properties are the ones most concerned about sea level rises.
On property values, the doomsday report warned that property values could fall by $600 billion thanks to climate change. Sounds like a big number until you realise it is just 5 per cent of Australia’s property portfolio, or about one year of price growth.
Finally, the doomsday report warned that “for a moderate emissions scenario” natural disasters could cost Australians $40 billion a year. They quoted the “Colvin Review” as the source of this claim. As scientist Dr Roger Pielke Jr. said “the Colvin Review actually says no such thing.” The Colvin Review explicitly says that “These cost estimates do not consider underlying impacts of climate change.”
The lesson from all of this is for us to ignore our modern-day chicken littles. Climate change is an issue, but the sky is not falling in. Cyclones are down. The area burned by bushfires (here in Australia and globally) is falling. Any climate changes we are experiencing are manageable providing we maintain a prosperous economy.
We should stop trying to scare our children.
